April, 2005 Dow Jones Industrial Average Down 500 Point in Four Days. up over 200 Points the next day, Down 60 points the Following day.
Is this really where you want to “invest”? What do you own here that is not written on the wind?
What is the true value of what you own stripped of your broker’s estimate of its potential? Look at what is happening to AT&T, American Airlines and General Motors. Look at what happened to Enron, AIG , Adelphia Communications, and Worldcom. They were all quality stocks once and there are many more issues that are failing or have failed under similar crcumstances.
As we all know now, those are clear losers, but let’s look at some “quality” stocks that are “alive and well” like Microsoft, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson. And let’s assume all the values presented by these companies are indeed factual.
Microsoft - Here earnings would have to increase 26.7 fold to equal the current stock price and $24.46 was paid for shares backed by $3.17 in cash/share. You are paying 8 fold the cash value/share.
Pfizer - Here earnings would have to increase 18.6 fold to equal the current stock price and $27.71 was paid for shares backed by $2.75 in cash/share. You are paying 9 fold the cash value/share.
Johnson & Johnson- Here earnings would have to increase 22.8 fold to equal the current stock price and $69.40 was paid for shares backed by $3.17 in cash/share. You are paying 23 fold the cash value/share.
Every stock in the marketplace is similar - go ahead, try it. You believe that you are investing in a company’s brighter future, but you are actually investing with the hope that someone will pay more for your shares then you did - but for all, the future you are betting on is just plain fiscally impossible - and that is if there is no outright fraud or incompetence. Simply put, your savings are at great risk and the chances of you losing your life’s savings is very real. Aside from stock valuation, another reason for this is that it is psychologically difficult to sell in a down market. This is because you do not wish to lose money so you wait hoping the shares will recoup their value. Frequently however they just keep going down or hit a disastrous bottom and stay down for a period that cannot be tolerated. Because of this, losses can be and have been life-altering..
Art, on the other hand, appreciates. As the supply of items from specific artists or past exotic cultures diminish due to accrual by collectors or as the result of accidents and natural disasters, prices increase. More people come to value such items, demand increases further and supply decreases sharply - classic economic criteria for increasing valuations. Demand for art has been proven by time - here long term pricing is not manipulated, pricing in art is based on the firm economic criterion of supply and demand and is real!
Investment and financial appreciation in art, does not depend upon “the greater fool” principle. It depends upon the innate value of unique creativity and artistic prowess. Demand and financial appreciation here is a function of competitive bidding among astute and knowlegeable individuals, museums and corporations. This also an undeniable fact!
Here you will not find the bloated P/E ratios of listed companies. Here all that you require is evidence of increasing value over the years - much simpler and certain than selecting “winning” shares.
Face facts, the “always rising market” is a sham. Losing shares leave the system and current "winners" replace them. The increasing value of the stock market reflects only the increasing size of the economy, it does not assure the growth of any one company. They all senesce, they all die, dinosaurs replaced by innovation.
One complete trade/week at as little as $5.00 commission/trade costs you $520.00. You think nothing of this investment “opportunity,” but hesitate to invest this modest sum in art. Ignorance here is not bliss, ignorance here is problematic and has serious financial consequences. The $520.00 invested in art rather than being given to brokerage houses could return from $3,000 to $12,000 or more in 30 years. The funds spent on commissions, however, are gone forever, And the thousands spent for stock could return millions if invested in art with no headaches, no roller coasters, no losses, just the pleasure of possessing beautiful and appreciating assets.
Look at these facts and make up your own mind - for me, the answer is clear. Join the winners!
Bert Warren, Host
                        Total Cash Value:                                  $34.50 Billion
                        Total Debt                                              $15.04 Billion
                        Total Shares:                                           10.88 Billion
                        Total Cash/Share:                                   $3.17/share
                        Selling Price 4/15/05                               $24.46/share
                        52 week change                                       - 1.51%
                       P/E                                                             26.7
                        Total Cash Value:                                  $20.55 Billion
                        Total Debt                                              $18.55 Billion
                        Total Shares:                                           17.46 Billion
                        Total Cash/Share:                                   $2.75/share
                        Selling Price 4/15/05                               $27.71/share
                        52 week change                                       - 26.4%
                       P/E                                                            18.6
                        Total Cash Value:                                  $13.09 Billion
                        Total Debt                                              $ 3.41 Billion
                        Total Shares:                                           
2.97 Billion
                        Total Cash/Share:                                   $3.17/share
                        Selling Price 4/15/05                               $69.40/share
                        52 week change                                       + 24.2%
                       P/E                                                            22.8
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